Parnu Rannastaadion · Referee K. Koppel · Analysis updated 14:05 UTC
Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Vaprus and 1.85 for Flora Tallinn, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Flora Tallinn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Flora Tallinn win
46.6% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vaprus home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Flora Tallinn to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 31% / 23% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Vaprus and 1.85 for Flora Tallinn, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–17.2%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.7%
Recent form
Vaprus
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Flora Tallinn · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Paide · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Levadia Tallinn · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Laagri · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nõmme United · 1-0 (W)
Flora Tallinn
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tammeka · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Levadia Tallinn · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Kuressaare · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vaprus · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme United · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · Vaprus 1-2 Flora Tallinn (Meistriliiga)
- 2026-06-16T16:00:00.000Z · Vaprus 1-2 Flora Tallinn (Meistriliiga)
- 2026-04-12T14:00:00.000Z · Vaprus 0-2 Flora Tallinn (Meistriliiga)
- 2026-01-17T11:00:00.000Z · Vaprus 2-2 Flora Tallinn (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-11-08T10:30:00.000Z · Vaprus 0-3 Flora Tallinn (Meistriliiga)
- 2025-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · Vaprus 0-3 Flora Tallinn (Meistriliiga)
- 2025-05-02T16:00:00.000Z · Vaprus 0-3 Flora Tallinn (Meistriliiga)
- 2025-03-08T10:30:00.000Z · Vaprus 1-0 Flora Tallinn (Meistriliiga)
- 2024-09-29T11:30:00.000Z · Vaprus 0-3 Flora Tallinn (Meistriliiga)
- 2024-08-23T16:30:00.000Z · Vaprus 0-1 Flora Tallinn (Meistriliiga)
Meistriliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 32 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 65 | 81 |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 33 | 19 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 58 |
| 3 | Paide | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 57 |
| 4 | Kalju Nomme | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 51 |
| 5 | Tammeka | 32 | 15 | 2 | 15 | -9 | 47 |
| 6 | Laagri | 33 | 15 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 47 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | -20 | 36 |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 32 | 10 | 5 | 17 | -17 | 35 |
| 9 | Nõmme United | 32 | 10 | 1 | 21 | -24 | 31 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | -45 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Flora Tallinn win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.