Parnu Rannastaadion · Referee J. Jakobson · Analysis updated 17:44 UTC
Vaprus vs Nõmme United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.19 expected goals for Vaprus and 1.77 for Nõmme United, a combined total of 3.97. That distribution gives Vaprus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vaprus win
47.8% probability
Expected goals
2.19 – 1.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vaprus home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Nõmme United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vaprus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 20% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.19 goals for Vaprus and 1.77 for Nõmme United, a combined 3.97 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.1%
- 1–17.4%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–26.5%
- 3–15.9%
Recent form
Vaprus
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Flora Tallinn · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Paide · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Levadia Tallinn · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Laagri · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nõmme United · 1-0 (W)
Nõmme United
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Paide · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Flora Tallinn · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalju Nomme · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vaprus · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Vaprus · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Meistriliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 32 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 65 | 81 |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 33 | 19 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 58 |
| 3 | Paide | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 57 |
| 4 | Kalju Nomme | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 51 |
| 5 | Tammeka | 32 | 15 | 2 | 15 | -9 | 47 |
| 6 | Laagri | 33 | 15 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 47 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | -20 | 36 |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 32 | 10 | 5 | 17 | -17 | 35 |
| 9 | Nõmme United | 32 | 10 | 1 | 21 | -24 | 31 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | -45 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vaprus win, at 47.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.