· Analysis updated 02:46 UTC
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Kalmar FF Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.07 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Varbergs BoIS FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Varbergs BoIS FC win
49.2% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Varbergs BoIS FC home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kalmar FF away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Varbergs BoIS FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 25% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.07 for Kalmar FF, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.9%
- 0–17.6%
Recent form
Varbergs BoIS FC
- 2026-10-19T17:05:00.000Z · H vs Helsingborg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ostersunds FK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs IK brage · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Norrby IF · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs IFK Norrkoping · 0-2 (L)
Kalmar FF
- 2026-10-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Norrkoping · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BK Hacken · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Elfsborg · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Djurgardens IF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Halmstad · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Varbergs BoIS FC win, at 49.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.