· Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Norrby IF Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.08 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Varbergs BoIS FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Varbergs BoIS FC home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Norrby IF away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Varbergs BoIS FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 29% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.08 for Norrby IF, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–111.3%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Varbergs BoIS FC
- 2026-10-19T17:05:00.000Z · H vs Helsingborg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ostersunds FK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs IK brage · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Norrby IF · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs IFK Norrkoping · 0-2 (L)
Norrby IF
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs IFK Norrkoping · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs United Nordic · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Osters IF · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Helsingborg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Varbergs BoIS FC · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.