Haugesund Stadion · Analysis updated 15:38 UTC
Vard vs Fana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.83 expected goals for Vard and 2.40 for Fana, a combined total of 5.23. That distribution gives Vard the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 85% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vard win
48.3% probability
Expected goals
2.83 – 2.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vard home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fana away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vard to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 18% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.83 goals for Vard and 2.40 for Fana, a combined 5.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.2%
- 3–25.8%
- 2–15.2%
- 2–34.9%
- 3–14.9%
Recent form
Vard
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Åsane II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Stord · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fana · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sogndal II · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Førde · 9-0 (W)
Fana
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vard · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Førde · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Os · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Stord · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Brann II · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-18T12:00:00.000Z · Vard 2-1 Fana (3. Division - Girone 3)
- 2024-01-27T13:00:00.000Z · Vard 4-1 Fana (Friendlies Clubs)
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vard win, at 48.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 85% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.