Haugesund Stadion · Analysis updated 13:42 UTC
Vard vs Haugesund Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.37 expected goals for Vard and 1.99 for Haugesund, a combined total of 4.36. That distribution gives Vard the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vard win
47.3% probability
Expected goals
2.37 – 1.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vard home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Haugesund away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vard to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 20% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.37 goals for Vard and 1.99 for Haugesund, a combined 4.36 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.2%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–16.0%
- 1–26.0%
- 3–15.7%
Recent form
Vard
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Åsane II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Stord · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fana · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sogndal II · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Førde · 9-0 (W)
Haugesund
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Strommen · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Moss · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Djerv · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sogndal · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bryne · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vard win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.