· Analysis updated 02:04 UTC
Vardar Negotino vs Detonit Plachkovica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Vardar Negotino and 1.95 for Detonit Plachkovica, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Detonit Plachkovica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Detonit Plachkovica win
58.3% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vardar Negotino home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Detonit Plachkovica away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.7%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–36.5%
Recent form
Vardar Negotino
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Rabotnicki · 0-8 (L)
- 2026-05-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Kozuv Gevgelija · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-05-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Pobeda · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Osogovo · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkëndija Haraçinë · 2-8 (L)
Detonit Plachkovica
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Gorno Lisiče · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Teteks · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Kozuv Gevgelija · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Ohrid · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Kamjani · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-11T13:30:00.000Z · Vardar Negotino 0-3 Detonit Plachkovica (Second League)
- 2025-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · Vardar Negotino 1-3 Detonit Plachkovica (Second League)
- 2025-03-29T14:00:00.000Z · Vardar Negotino 0-0 Detonit Plachkovica (Second League)
- 2024-10-06T12:00:00.000Z · Vardar Negotino 1-1 Detonit Plachkovica (Second League)
- 2024-02-17T13:00:00.000Z · Vardar Negotino 2-0 Detonit Plachkovica (Second League)
- 2023-08-12T15:00:00.000Z · Vardar Negotino 0-1 Detonit Plachkovica (Second League)
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohrid | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 |
| 2 | Pelister | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 21 |
| 3 | FK Rabotnicki | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Akademija Pandev | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Kamjani | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 6 | Teteks | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Belasica | 9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Makedonija GjP | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Kozuv Gevgelija | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Detonit Plachkovica | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 11 | Novaci | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Gorno Lisiče | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Osogovo | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Shkupi 1927 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -28 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Detonit Plachkovica win, at 58.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.