National Arena Toshe Proeski · Analysis updated 17:29 UTC
Vardar Skopje vs Aresimi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Vardar Skopje and 0.95 for Aresimi, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Vardar Skopje the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vardar Skopje win
62.8% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vardar Skopje home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aresimi away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.5%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 3–07.1%
Recent form
Vardar Skopje
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Shkëndija Haraçinë · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bashkimi Kumanovo · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Aresimi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Ovce Pole · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tikveš · 1-1 (D)
Aresimi
- 2026-09-24T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Mogila · 12-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Struga · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Shkendija · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vardar Skopje · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Skopje · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · Vardar Skopje 2-0 Aresimi (First League)
- 2026-03-21T13:30:00.000Z · Vardar Skopje 0-1 Aresimi (First League)
- 2026-02-11T12:00:00.000Z · Vardar Skopje 5-1 Aresimi (First League)
- 2025-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · Vardar Skopje 4-1 Aresimi (First League)
- 2023-02-18T13:00:00.000Z · Vardar Skopje 1-1 Aresimi (Second League)
- 2022-08-20T15:00:00.000Z · Vardar Skopje 1-0 Aresimi (Second League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shkendija | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Struga | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 23 |
| 3 | Vardar Skopje | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Tikveš | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 17 |
| 5 | Sileks | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 7 | Bregalnica Štip | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aresimi | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -13 | 10 |
| 9 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 7 |
| 10 | Skopje | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vardar Skopje win, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.