Varea vs Casalarreina Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Varea and 0.58 for Casalarreina, a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives Varea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Varea win

54.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 0.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Varea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 29% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Varea and 0.58 for Casalarreina, a combined 1.88 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 29% and both teams to score at 32%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%.

Match result (1X2)

Varea win54%

Draw29%

Casalarreina win17%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals56%

Over 2.5 goals29%

Over 3.5 goals12%

Both teams to score32%

Correct score

1–019.9%
0–015.3%
2–013.0%
1–111.5%
0–18.8%

Recent form

Varea

Casalarreina

Head-to-head

2025-03-16T16:00:00.000Z · Varea 3-1 Casalarreina (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
2024-10-31T18:30:00.000Z · Varea 4-1 Casalarreina (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
2024-04-13T15:30:00.000Z · Varea 0-1 Casalarreina (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
2023-11-26T11:00:00.000Z · Varea 1-2 Casalarreina (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
2023-01-22T11:00:00.000Z · Varea 0-0 Casalarreina (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
2022-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · Varea 3-1 Casalarreina (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
2022-02-12T16:00:00.000Z · Varea 0-2 Casalarreina (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
2021-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · Varea 0-0 Casalarreina (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
2019-10-27T10:00:00.000Z · Varea 4-2 Casalarreina (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Berceo	6	5	0	1	13	15
2	Alfaro	6	4	1	1	3	13
3	Haro Deportivo	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Calahorra	6	4	0	2	11	12
5	La Calzada	6	4	0	2	1	12
6	Pradejón	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Varea	6	2	4	0	2	10
8	San Marcial	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Agoncillo	6	2	2	2	3	8
10	Anguiano	6	2	2	2	2	8
11	Oyonesa	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	Yagüe	6	2	0	4	-6	6
13	Cenicero	6	1	2	3	-3	5
14	Comillas	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Calasancio	6	1	2	3	-9	5
16	Vianés	6	1	1	4	-1	4
17	River Ebro	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Casalarreina	6	1	0	5	-9	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Varea win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.