Varea vs FC Andorra Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Varea and 0.76 for FC Andorra, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Varea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Varea win

52.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.39 – 0.76

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Varea home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Andorra away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Varea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 28% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Varea and 0.76 for FC Andorra, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Varea win52%

Draw28%

FC Andorra win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

1–016.2%
1–112.3%
0–011.7%
2–011.3%
0–18.8%

Recent form

Varea

2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Alfaro · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Calasancio · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Agoncillo · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Oyonesa · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs La Calzada · 1-0 (W)

FC Andorra

2026-10-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Castellón · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sabadell · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Granada CF · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Gijon · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.

Copa del Rey table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pinatar	2	2	0	0	11	6
2	Prat	2	2	0	0	9	6
3	Anaitasuna	2	2	0	0	8	6
4	Lebrijana	2	2	0	0	6	6
5	Atletico Calatayud	2	2	0	0	3	6
6	Alcazar	2	2	0	0	2	6
7	Hortaleza	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Ribadesella CF	2	1	1	0	1	4
9	Auriense	2	1	0	1	1	3
10	CD San Jose	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Maracena	2	0	2	0	0	2
12	Tavernes	2	0	2	0	0	2
13	Güímar	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Noja	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Talayuela	2	0	0	2	-2	0
16	Baztán	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Ceuta 6 de Junio	2	0	0	2	-6	0
18	Tedeón	2	0	0	2	-8	0
19	San Rafael	2	0	0	2	-9	0
20	Atlético Melilla	2	0	0	2	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Varea win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.