· Analysis updated 11:01 UTC
Varea vs La Calzada Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Varea and 0.78 for La Calzada, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Varea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
74.7% probability
Expected goals
1.12 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Varea home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
La Calzada away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Varea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 31% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.12 goals for Varea and 0.78 for La Calzada, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.8%
- 0–014.9%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.6%
- 2–09.4%
Recent form
Varea
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Alfaro · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Calasancio · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Agoncillo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Oyonesa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs La Calzada · 1-0 (W)
La Calzada
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Berceo · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Comillas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Varea · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Vianés · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Casalarreina · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haro Deportivo | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 19 |
| 2 | La Calzada | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 18 |
| 3 | Varea | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | Alfaro | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Calahorra | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 15 |
| 6 | Berceo | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 15 |
| 7 | San Marcial | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 8 | Anguiano | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 9 | Pradejón | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 10 | Agoncillo | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 11 | Oyonesa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Calasancio | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | River Ebro | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 14 | Comillas | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Yagüe | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -14 | 6 |
| 16 | Cenicero | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Vianés | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 4 |
| 18 | Casalarreina | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.