· Analysis updated 13:40 UTC
Varegg vs Førde Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.53 expected goals for Varegg and 1.28 for Førde, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Varegg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Varegg win
64.5% probability
Expected goals
2.53 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Varegg home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Førde away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Varegg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 18% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.53 goals for Varegg and 1.28 for Førde, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–17.2%
- 2–07.1%
- 3–06.0%
Recent form
Varegg
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stord · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Brann II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Os · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Gneist · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sogndal II · 2-0 (W)
Førde
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Åsane II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fana · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalesund · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Vard · 0-9 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Os · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Varegg win, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.