· Analysis updated 14:39 UTC
Varegg vs Os Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Varegg and 2.10 for Os, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Os the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Os win
48.4% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 2.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Varegg home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Os away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Os to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 31% / 21% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Varegg and 2.10 for Os, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.6%
- 1–18.1%
- 2–27.1%
- 2–16.7%
- 1–36.0%
Recent form
Varegg
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stord · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Brann II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Os · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Gneist · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sogndal II · 2-0 (W)
Os
- 2026-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sogndal II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fyllingsdalen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Askøy · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Varegg · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Åsane II · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · Varegg 4-2 Os (3. Division - Girone 3)
- 2026-07-26T12:00:00.000Z · Varegg 0-4 Os (3. Division - Girone 3)
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Os win, at 48.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.