· Analysis updated 07:44 UTC
Varegg vs Sogndal II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Varegg and 2.45 for Sogndal II, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives Sogndal II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sogndal II win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 2.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Varegg home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sogndal II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sogndal II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 27% / 19% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Varegg and 2.45 for Sogndal II, a combined 4.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.0%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–36.6%
- 1–16.6%
- 2–35.6%
Recent form
Varegg
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Førde · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Åsane II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stord · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Brann II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Os · 4-2 (W)
Sogndal II
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gneist · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Austevoll · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Djerv · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vard · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Varegg · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · Varegg 2-0 Sogndal II (3. Division - Girone 3)
- 2026-08-18T17:00:00.000Z · Varegg 1-3 Sogndal II (3. Division - Girone 3)
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sogndal II win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.