· Analysis updated 16:34 UTC
Varesina vs Pontedera Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Varesina and 0.95 for Pontedera, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Varesina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Varesina win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Varesina home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Pontedera away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Varesina to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 25% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Varesina and 0.95 for Pontedera, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.3%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.4%
Recent form
Varesina
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pro Sesto · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pavia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pro Patria · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs USD Casatese · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pistoiese · 0-1 (L)
Pontedera
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Crema · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Coriano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lentigione · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cittadella Vis Modena · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Città di Varese · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 24 |
| 2 | Pro Patria | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Castellanzese | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Lentigione | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | Pro Sesto | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | USD Casatese | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Città di Varese | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 8 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Sant'Angelo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Solbiatese | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Correggese | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Pavia | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 13 | Crema | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | Varesina | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Coriano | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Oltrepò | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Arconatese | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -14 | 3 |
| 18 | Pontedera | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Varesina win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.