· Analysis updated 16:43 UTC
Varhaug vs Odd II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Varhaug and 1.50 for Odd II, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Varhaug the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Varhaug win
47.7% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Varhaug home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Odd II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Varhaug to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 22% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Varhaug and 1.50 for Odd II, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.3%
Recent form
Varhaug
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Våg · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Staal Jørpeland · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Flekkerøy · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Viking II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Brodd · 3-0 (W)
Odd II
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mandalskameratene · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Stabæk II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Åkra · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Haugesund II · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Madla · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-28T15:00:00.000Z · Varhaug 2-2 Odd II (3. Division - Girone 4)
3. Division - Girone 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Madla | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 32 | 48 |
| 2 | Mandalskameratene | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 43 |
| 3 | Flekkerøy | 23 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 39 |
| 4 | Vindbjart | 23 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 38 |
| 5 | Varhaug | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 36 |
| 6 | Viking II | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 35 |
| 7 | Brodd | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 33 |
| 8 | Stabæk II | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | -1 | 33 |
| 9 | Våg | 23 | 10 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 32 |
| 10 | Odd II | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | -10 | 29 |
| 11 | Staal Jørpeland | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | -13 | 26 |
| 12 | Haugesund II | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | -21 | 25 |
| 13 | Hinna | 23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | -25 | 23 |
| 14 | Åkra | 23 | 4 | 3 | 16 | -41 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Varhaug win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.