· Analysis updated 15:23 UTC
Varhaug vs Stabæk II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for Varhaug and 1.66 for Stabæk II, a combined total of 4.04. That distribution gives Varhaug the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Varhaug win
53.7% probability
Expected goals
2.38 – 1.66
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Varhaug home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stabæk II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Varhaug to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 20% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.38 goals for Varhaug and 1.66 for Stabæk II, a combined 4.04 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.3%
- 1–16.9%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–25.8%
Recent form
Varhaug
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Våg · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Staal Jørpeland · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Flekkerøy · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Viking II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Brodd · 3-0 (W)
Stabæk II
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mandalskameratene · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Haugesund II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Flekkerøy · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Odd II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vindbjart · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Madla | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 34 | 51 |
| 2 | Mandalskameratene | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 46 |
| 3 | Flekkerøy | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 39 |
| 4 | Varhaug | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 39 |
| 5 | Vindbjart | 24 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 19 | 38 |
| 6 | Brodd | 24 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 36 |
| 7 | Viking II | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 35 |
| 8 | Våg | 24 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 35 |
| 9 | Stabæk II | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | -3 | 33 |
| 10 | Odd II | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | -14 | 29 |
| 11 | Staal Jørpeland | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -15 | 26 |
| 12 | Hinna | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -23 | 26 |
| 13 | Haugesund II | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | -22 | 25 |
| 14 | Åkra | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | -39 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Varhaug win, at 53.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.