· Analysis updated 10:36 UTC
Varketili vs Betlemi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Varketili and 0.45 for Betlemi, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Varketili the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Varketili win
78.6% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 0.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Varketili home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Betlemi away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–017.0%
- 1–015.1%
- 3–012.8%
- 2–17.7%
- 4–07.2%
Recent form
Varketili
- 2026-10-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Guria · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tbilisi II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gonio · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Iberia 1999 II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi · 3-3 (D)
Betlemi
- 2026-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Iveria Khashuri · 0-8 (L)
- 2026-10-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Iberia 2010 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolkheti Khobi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Margveti 2006 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Gardabani · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-15T10:00:00.000Z · Varketili 7-1 Betlemi (Liga 3)
- 2025-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · Varketili 3-0 Betlemi (Liga 3)
- 2025-04-10T09:00:00.000Z · Varketili 4-1 Betlemi (Liga 3)
- 2024-08-29T12:30:00.000Z · Varketili 3-2 Betlemi (Liga 3)
- 2024-03-07T00:00:00.000Z · Varketili 2-2 Betlemi (Liga 3)
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guria | 25 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 56 | 56 |
| 2 | Varketili | 25 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 44 | 56 |
| 3 | FC Iberia 1999 II | 25 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 22 | 46 |
| 4 | Gonio | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 44 |
| 5 | Merani Tbilisi | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 43 |
| 6 | WIT Georgia | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 38 |
| 7 | Irao | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 36 |
| 8 | Dinamo Tbilisi II | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 36 |
| 9 | Didube 2014 | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 35 |
| 10 | Lokomotivi Tbilisi | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 34 |
| 11 | Margveti 2006 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | -8 | 34 |
| 12 | Kolkheti Khobi | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -15 | 26 |
| 13 | Iveria Khashuri | 25 | 3 | 11 | 11 | -14 | 20 |
| 14 | Gardabani | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | -42 | 16 |
| 15 | Betlemi | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | -51 | 16 |
| 16 | Iberia 2010 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 17 | -37 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Varketili win, at 78.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.