Varketili vs Irao Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Varketili and 0.80 for Irao, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Varketili the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Varketili win

67.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.08 – 0.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Varketili home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Irao away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Varketili to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 20% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for Varketili and 0.80 for Irao, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Varketili win67%

Draw20%

Irao win13%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

2–012.2%
1–011.7%
2–19.7%
1–19.3%
3–08.5%

Recent form

Varketili

2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gonio · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Iberia 1999 II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Iveria Khashuri · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Iberia 2010 · 0-0 (D)

Irao

2026-09-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Iberia 2010 · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Kolkheti Khobi · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Margveti 2006 · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gardabani · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Betlemi · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Guria	22	16	3	3	52	51
2	Varketili	22	14	7	1	40	49
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	22	11	8	3	18	41
4	Merani Tbilisi	22	11	6	5	10	39
5	Gonio	22	11	5	6	10	38
6	WIT Georgia	22	10	5	7	10	35
7	Irao	22	10	4	8	11	34
8	Didube 2014	22	9	7	6	6	34
9	Dinamo Tbilisi II	22	9	5	8	4	32
10	Margveti 2006	22	9	3	10	-5	30
11	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	22	7	7	8	-1	28
12	Kolkheti Khobi	22	6	3	13	-17	21
13	Gardabani	22	4	4	14	-35	16
14	Iveria Khashuri	22	1	10	11	-24	13
15	Betlemi	22	3	4	15	-41	13
16	Iberia 2010	22	2	5	15	-38	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Varketili win, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.