· Analysis updated 14:34 UTC
Varketili vs Iveria Khashuri Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.17 expected goals for Varketili and 0.62 for Iveria Khashuri, a combined total of 3.79. That distribution gives Varketili the largest share of the 1X2 market at 86%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 86% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Varketili win
86.3% probability
Expected goals
3.17 – 0.62
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Varketili home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Varketili to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 86%, against 86% / 9% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.17 goals for Varketili and 0.62 for Iveria Khashuri, a combined 3.79 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 44%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
96%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
14%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–012.0%
- 2–011.3%
- 4–09.5%
- 3–17.4%
- 1–07.2%
Recent form
Varketili
- 2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gonio · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Iberia 1999 II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Iveria Khashuri · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Iberia 2010 · 0-0 (D)
Iveria Khashuri
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guria | 24 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 56 | 55 |
| 2 | Varketili | 24 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 43 | 53 |
| 3 | FC Iberia 1999 II | 24 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 18 | 43 |
| 4 | Merani Tbilisi | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 40 |
| 5 | WIT Georgia | 23 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 38 |
| 6 | Gonio | 23 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 38 |
| 7 | Irao | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 35 |
| 8 | Didube 2014 | 24 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 35 |
| 9 | Dinamo Tbilisi II | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 32 |
| 10 | Lokomotivi Tbilisi | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 31 |
| 11 | Margveti 2006 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | -9 | 31 |
| 12 | Kolkheti Khobi | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | -15 | 25 |
| 13 | Iveria Khashuri | 24 | 2 | 11 | 11 | -16 | 17 |
| 14 | Gardabani | 24 | 4 | 4 | 16 | -40 | 16 |
| 15 | Betlemi | 24 | 4 | 4 | 16 | -48 | 16 |
| 16 | Iberia 2010 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 16 | -36 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Varketili win, at 86.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 86% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.