Varketili vs Merani Tbilisi Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.16 expected goals for Varketili and 0.75 for Merani Tbilisi, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives Varketili the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Varketili win

69.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.16 – 0.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Varketili home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Merani Tbilisi away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Varketili to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 19% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.16 goals for Varketili and 0.75 for Merani Tbilisi, a combined 2.92 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Varketili win70%

Draw19%

Merani Tbilisi win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

30%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

2–012.6%
1–011.7%
2–19.5%
3–09.1%
1–18.8%

Recent form

Varketili

2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gonio · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Iberia 1999 II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Iveria Khashuri · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Iberia 2010 · 0-0 (D)

Merani Tbilisi

2026-09-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Iberia 2010 · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolkheti Khobi · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Margveti 2006 · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Gardabani · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Betlemi · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Guria	24	17	4	3	56	55
2	Varketili	24	15	8	1	43	53
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	24	11	10	3	18	43
4	Merani Tbilisi	23	11	7	5	10	40
5	WIT Georgia	23	11	5	7	12	38
6	Gonio	23	11	5	7	8	38
7	Irao	23	10	5	8	11	35
8	Didube 2014	24	9	8	7	4	35
9	Dinamo Tbilisi II	23	9	5	9	1	32
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	23	8	7	8	1	31
11	Margveti 2006	24	9	4	11	-9	31
12	Kolkheti Khobi	24	7	4	13	-15	25
13	Iveria Khashuri	24	2	11	11	-16	17
14	Gardabani	24	4	4	16	-40	16
15	Betlemi	24	4	4	16	-48	16
16	Iberia 2010	24	3	5	16	-36	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Varketili win, at 69.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.