Varnsdorf vs Benátky nad Jizerou Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Varnsdorf and 1.46 for Benátky nad Jizerou, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Benátky nad Jizerou the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

68.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.46

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Varnsdorf home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Benátky nad Jizerou away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Benátky nad Jizerou to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 31% / 26% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Varnsdorf and 1.46 for Benátky nad Jizerou, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Varnsdorf win31%

Draw26%

Benátky nad Jizerou win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.3%
0–110.2%
1–28.9%
1–08.4%
0–27.4%

Recent form

Varnsdorf

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Baník Souš · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hradec Králové II · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-07T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Mladá Boleslav II · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Liberec II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Jablonec II · 0-2 (L)

Benátky nad Jizerou

2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Pardubice II · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Teplice II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Čáslav · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sokol Brozany · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Neratovice-Byškovice · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. liga - CFL B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mladá Boleslav II	12	8	2	2	21	26
2	Jablonec II	11	7	3	1	16	24
3	Sokol Zápy	11	7	3	1	13	24
4	Benátky nad Jizerou	12	5	6	1	9	21
5	Pardubice II	10	5	2	3	11	17
6	Baník Souš	11	5	1	5	7	16
7	Neratovice-Byškovice	12	4	4	4	-2	16
8	Varnsdorf	10	4	3	3	0	15
9	Čáslav	11	4	2	5	-10	14
10	Teplice II	11	4	1	6	-3	13
11	Chrudim	12	3	4	5	-10	13
12	Slovan Liberec II	11	3	2	6	-8	11
13	Hradec Králové II	11	2	4	5	-3	10
14	Horní Ředice	10	3	0	7	-13	9
15	Sokol Brozany	11	1	5	5	-8	8
16	Velké Hamry	12	2	2	8	-20	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.