Mestsky stadion v Kotline · Analysis updated 16:32 UTC
Varnsdorf vs Horní Ředice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Varnsdorf and 1.06 for Horní Ředice, a combined total of 3.29. That distribution gives Varnsdorf the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Varnsdorf win
63.7% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Varnsdorf home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Horní Ředice away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Varnsdorf to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 19% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Varnsdorf and 1.06 for Horní Ředice, a combined 3.29 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.3%
- 1–18.8%
- 1–08.3%
- 3–17.3%
Recent form
Varnsdorf
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Baník Souš · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hradec Králové II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Mladá Boleslav II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Liberec II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Jablonec II · 0-2 (L)
Horní Ředice
- 2026-09-26T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Teplice II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Čáslav · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sokol Brozany · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Baník Souš · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Hradec Králové II · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - CFL B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mladá Boleslav II | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 26 |
| 2 | Jablonec II | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 24 |
| 3 | Sokol Zápy | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 24 |
| 4 | Benátky nad Jizerou | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 5 | Pardubice II | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 17 |
| 6 | Baník Souš | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 16 |
| 7 | Neratovice-Byškovice | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 8 | Varnsdorf | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Čáslav | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 14 |
| 10 | Teplice II | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | Chrudim | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -10 | 13 |
| 12 | Slovan Liberec II | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 13 | Hradec Králové II | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Horní Ředice | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -13 | 9 |
| 15 | Sokol Brozany | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 | Velké Hamry | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -20 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Varnsdorf win, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.