Mestsky stadion v Kotline · Analysis updated 16:42 UTC
Varnsdorf vs Slovan Liberec II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Varnsdorf and 1.27 for Slovan Liberec II, a combined total of 3.36. That distribution gives Varnsdorf the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Varnsdorf win
56.2% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Varnsdorf home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Slovan Liberec II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 1–19.2%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–07.3%
- 3–16.7%
Recent form
Varnsdorf
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Baník Souš · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hradec Králové II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Mladá Boleslav II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Liberec II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Jablonec II · 0-2 (L)
Slovan Liberec II
- 2026-10-24T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Horní Ředice · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Hradec Králové II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Chrudim · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Varnsdorf · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Benátky nad Jizerou · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · Varnsdorf 1-2 Slovan Liberec II (3. liga - CFL B)
- 2025-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · Varnsdorf 0-5 Slovan Liberec II (3. liga - CFL B)
- 2025-02-05T10:00:00.000Z · Varnsdorf 4-1 Slovan Liberec II (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-07-10T09:00:00.000Z · Varnsdorf 3-1 Slovan Liberec II (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-01-31T10:00:00.000Z · Varnsdorf 6-1 Slovan Liberec II (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-01-27T13:00:00.000Z · Varnsdorf 1-2 Slovan Liberec II (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-07-20T08:15:00.000Z · Varnsdorf 5-0 Slovan Liberec II (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-07-17T09:00:00.000Z · Varnsdorf 2-1 Slovan Liberec II (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2020-08-12T08:45:00.000Z · Varnsdorf 4-2 Slovan Liberec II (Friendlies Clubs)
3. liga - CFL B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mladá Boleslav II | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 26 |
| 2 | Jablonec II | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 24 |
| 3 | Sokol Zápy | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 24 |
| 4 | Benátky nad Jizerou | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 5 | Pardubice II | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 17 |
| 6 | Baník Souš | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 16 |
| 7 | Neratovice-Byškovice | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 8 | Varnsdorf | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Čáslav | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 14 |
| 10 | Teplice II | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | Chrudim | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -10 | 13 |
| 12 | Slovan Liberec II | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 13 | Hradec Králové II | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Horní Ředice | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -13 | 9 |
| 15 | Sokol Brozany | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 | Velké Hamry | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -20 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Varnsdorf win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.