· Analysis updated 06:23 UTC
Varteks Varaždin vs Inter Zapresic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Varteks Varaždin and 2.03 for Inter Zapresic, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Inter Zapresic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Inter Zapresic win
53.6% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 2.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Varteks Varaždin home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Inter Zapresic away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Inter Zapresic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 25% / 22% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Varteks Varaždin and 2.03 for Inter Zapresic, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.5%
- 1–19.4%
- 0–27.2%
- 0–17.1%
- 1–36.4%
Recent form
Varteks Varaždin
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Solin · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Jarun · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Koprivnica · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bjelovar · 1-1 (D)
Inter Zapresic
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Jarun · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Koprivnica · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bjelovar · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dugo Selo · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uskok Klis | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Dugo Selo | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Bjelovar | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Jarun | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Solin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Slavonija Požega | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Trnje | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Uljanik | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 9 | Inter Zapresic | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Zagora | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 11 | Križevci | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 | Grobničan Čavle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Hrvatski Dragovoljac | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 | Lucko | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 15 | Varteks Varaždin | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | Koprivnica | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Inter Zapresic win, at 53.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.