Estádio Varzim Sport Club · Analysis updated 05:43 UTC
Varzim vs Ferreiras Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Varzim and 1.10 for Ferreiras, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Varzim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Varzim win
56.0% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Varzim home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ferreiras away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Varzim to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 22% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Varzim and 1.10 for Ferreiras, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–09.0%
- 3–16.3%
Recent form
Varzim
- 2026-10-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Guimaraes B · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs São João Ver · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória de Sernache · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vianense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Paredes · 0-1 (L)
Ferreiras
- 2024-09-22T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Varzim · 0-3 (L)
- 2023-04-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético CP · 1-2 (L)
- 2023-04-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vasco da Gama Vidigueira · 1-3 (L)
- 2023-04-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Serpa · 1-2 (L)
- 2023-03-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Oriental Dragon · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Varzim win, at 56.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.