Varzim vs Guimaraes B Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Varzim and 1.00 for Guimaraes B, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Varzim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Varzim win

58.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.90 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Varzim home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Guimaraes B away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Varzim win58%

Draw22%

Guimaraes B win20%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–010.5%
1–110.5%
2–09.9%
2–19.9%
3–06.3%

Recent form

Varzim

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória de Sernache · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vianense · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Paredes · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Trofense · 5-1 (W)
2026-08-22T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Pacos Ferreira · 4-1 (W)

Guimaraes B

2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Marco 09 · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Trofense · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-21T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Fafe · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Leça · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Paredes · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-25T15:30:00.000Z · Varzim 2-2 Guimaraes B (Liga 3)
2026-02-28T15:00:00.000Z · Varzim 0-3 Guimaraes B (Liga 3)
2026-01-11T15:00:00.000Z · Varzim 2-1 Guimaraes B (Liga 3)
2025-10-04T15:45:00.000Z · Varzim 1-1 Guimaraes B (Liga 3)
2023-02-19T11:00:00.000Z · Varzim 1-2 Guimaraes B (Liga 3)
2022-11-04T18:00:00.000Z · Varzim 2-0 Guimaraes B (Liga 3)
2019-02-24T17:00:00.000Z · Varzim 0-0 Guimaraes B (Segunda Liga)
2018-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · Varzim 1-2 Guimaraes B (Segunda Liga)
2018-01-14T15:00:00.000Z · Varzim 1-2 Guimaraes B (Segunda Liga)
2017-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · Varzim 3-0 Guimaraes B (Segunda Liga)

Liga 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paredes	6	4	1	1	4	13
1	CF Os Belenenses	6	5	1	0	11	16
2	Leça	6	3	1	2	1	10
2	Atlético CP	6	4	1	1	8	13
3	AD Marco 09	6	3	1	2	1	10
3	Oliveirense	6	2	3	1	0	9
4	Vianense	6	2	3	1	1	9
4	Mafra	6	2	2	2	4	8
5	Fafe	6	2	3	1	4	9
5	Louletano	6	2	1	3	-1	7
6	Varzim	6	3	0	3	2	9
6	União Santarém	6	2	1	3	-4	7
7	São João Ver	6	1	3	2	-2	6
7	Caldas	6	2	1	3	-3	7
8	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	2	3	-4	5
8	SC Covilha	6	1	3	2	-2	6
9	Trofense	6	1	2	3	-5	5
9	Lusitano Évora 1911	6	1	2	3	-4	5
10	Guimaraes B	6	1	2	3	-2	5
10	Vitória de Sernache	6	1	1	4	-9	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Varzim win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.