Varzim vs Trofense Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Varzim and 0.87 for Trofense, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives Varzim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Varzim win

62.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.95 – 0.87

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Varzim home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Trofense away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Varzim win63%

Draw21%

Trofense win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–011.6%
2–011.3%
1–110.1%
2–19.9%
3–07.3%

Recent form

Varzim

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória de Sernache · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vianense · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Paredes · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Trofense · 5-1 (W)
2026-08-22T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Pacos Ferreira · 4-1 (W)

Trofense

2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Leça · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guimaraes B · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Varzim · 1-5 (L)
2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs São João Ver · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-15T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vianense · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · Varzim 5-1 Trofense (Taça de Portugal)
2026-08-09T16:00:00.000Z · Varzim 1-0 Trofense (Liga 3)
2026-04-18T18:00:00.000Z · Varzim 1-0 Trofense (Liga 3)
2026-02-21T17:30:00.000Z · Varzim 2-0 Trofense (Liga 3)
2025-12-20T17:30:00.000Z · Varzim 0-1 Trofense (Liga 3)
2025-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · Varzim 1-2 Trofense (Liga 3)
2025-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · Varzim 1-5 Trofense (Taça de Portugal)
2025-01-18T20:00:00.000Z · Varzim 2-1 Trofense (Liga 3)
2024-10-06T16:30:00.000Z · Varzim 2-3 Trofense (Liga 3)
2023-12-16T15:00:00.000Z · Varzim 1-2 Trofense (Liga 3)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Varzim win, at 62.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.