· Analysis updated 14:58 UTC
Varzim vs Trofense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Varzim and 0.77 for Trofense, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Varzim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Varzim win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Varzim home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Trofense away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.5%
- 0–013.2%
- 1–112.8%
- 2–010.3%
- 0–110.2%
Recent form
Varzim
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória de Sernache · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vianense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Paredes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Trofense · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Pacos Ferreira · 4-1 (W)
Trofense
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Leça · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guimaraes B · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Varzim · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs São João Ver · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vianense · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · Varzim 5-1 Trofense (Taça de Portugal)
- 2026-08-09T16:00:00.000Z · Varzim 1-0 Trofense (Liga 3)
- 2026-04-18T18:00:00.000Z · Varzim 1-0 Trofense (Liga 3)
- 2026-02-21T17:30:00.000Z · Varzim 2-0 Trofense (Liga 3)
- 2025-12-20T17:30:00.000Z · Varzim 0-1 Trofense (Liga 3)
- 2025-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · Varzim 1-2 Trofense (Liga 3)
- 2025-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · Varzim 1-5 Trofense (Taça de Portugal)
- 2025-01-18T20:00:00.000Z · Varzim 2-1 Trofense (Liga 3)
- 2024-10-06T16:30:00.000Z · Varzim 2-3 Trofense (Liga 3)
- 2023-12-16T15:00:00.000Z · Varzim 1-2 Trofense (Liga 3)
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Leça | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | AD Marco 09 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Vianense | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Mafra | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Fafe | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Louletano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Varzim | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | União Santarém | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 7 | São João Ver | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 7 | Caldas | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Pacos Ferreira | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 8 | SC Covilha | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Trofense | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 9 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Guimaraes B | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Varzim win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.