Vasalund vs AFC Eskilstuna Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Vasalund and 2.30 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives AFC Eskilstuna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

AFC Eskilstuna win

56.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.45 – 2.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vasalund home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AFC Eskilstuna away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Vasalund win24%

Draw20%

AFC Eskilstuna win57%

Double chance 1X

43%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

76%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

1–29.0%
1–17.8%
1–36.9%
2–26.5%
0–26.2%

Recent form

Vasalund

2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Eskilstuna · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlberg · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Arlanda · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gefle IF · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Assyriska FF · 1-5 (L)

AFC Eskilstuna

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stockholm Internazionale · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FBK Karlstad · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Järfälla · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gefle IF · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-17T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Assyriska FF · 5-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-24T14:00:00.000Z · Vasalund 3-0 AFC Eskilstuna (Ettan - Norra)
2025-10-19T14:00:00.000Z · Vasalund 4-2 AFC Eskilstuna (Ettan - Norra)
2025-07-27T17:00:00.000Z · Vasalund 2-2 AFC Eskilstuna (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-05-24T14:00:00.000Z · Vasalund 2-0 AFC Eskilstuna (Ettan - Norra)
2024-09-29T14:00:00.000Z · Vasalund 3-2 AFC Eskilstuna (Ettan - Norra)
2024-05-14T17:15:00.000Z · Vasalund 0-1 AFC Eskilstuna (Ettan - Norra)
2021-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · Vasalund 2-1 AFC Eskilstuna (Superettan)
2021-07-31T15:00:00.000Z · Vasalund 4-2 AFC Eskilstuna (Superettan)

Ettan - Norra table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Stockholm Internazionale	26	19	3	4	42	60
2	Arlanda	26	14	6	6	15	48
3	AFC Eskilstuna	26	14	5	7	11	47
4	Hammarby Talang	26	13	6	7	25	45
5	Enköping	26	14	3	9	-1	45
6	IF Karlstad	26	12	8	6	15	44
7	FBK Karlstad	26	12	7	7	5	43
8	Assyriska FF	26	10	5	11	-1	35
9	Umeå FC	26	10	5	11	-6	35
10	Karlberg	26	9	6	11	-8	33
11	Gefle IF	26	9	4	13	-14	31
12	Vasalund	26	7	7	12	-16	28
13	Sollentuna	26	6	9	11	-9	27
14	Piteå	26	5	8	13	-16	23
15	Järfälla	26	5	4	17	-23	19
16	Stocksund	26	3	6	17	-19	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is AFC Eskilstuna win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.