Illovszky Rudolf Stadion · Analysis updated 13:30 UTC
Vasas II vs Dabas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Vasas II and 1.78 for Dabas, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Vasas II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.4% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vasas II home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dabas away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.5%
- 2–18.1%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–15.1%
Recent form
Vasas II
- 2026-08-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gyulai Termál · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Honvéd II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Újpest II · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Szolnoki MAV FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Szegedi VSE · 1-1 (D)
Dabas
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Csepel · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ESMTK · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs III. Kerületi TUE · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cigand SE · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gyulai Termál · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-26T09:00:00.000Z · Vasas II 2-1 Dabas (NB III - Southeast)
- 2025-10-12T11:00:00.000Z · Vasas II 1-1 Dabas (NB III - Southeast)
- 2025-04-27T15:00:00.000Z · Vasas II 5-0 Dabas (NB III - Southeast)
- 2024-10-13T09:00:00.000Z · Vasas II 1-1 Dabas (NB III - Southeast)
- 2024-05-04T09:00:00.000Z · Vasas II 3-2 Dabas (NB III - Southeast)
- 2023-10-22T11:00:00.000Z · Vasas II 1-1 Dabas (NB III - Southeast)
NB III - Southeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gyulai Termál | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 33 |
| 2 | III. Kerületi TUE | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | ESMTK | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 24 |
| 4 | Újpest II | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 5 | Vasas II | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 |
| 6 | Szeged-Csanád II | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 7 | Csepel | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Monori Se | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Szolnoki MAV FC | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Dabas | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 14 |
| 11 | Bekescsaba 1912 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 12 | Honvéd II | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Sándorfalva | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 10 |
| 14 | Hódmezővásárhely | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -11 | 8 |
| 15 | BKV Előre | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -29 | 5 |
| 16 | Szegedi VSE | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -22 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.