Vasas II vs III. Kerületi TUE Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Vasas II and 1.02 for III. Kerületi TUE, a combined total of 2.04. That distribution gives Vasas II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.03 – 1.02

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vasas II home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
III. Kerületi TUE away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vasas II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 30% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Vasas II and 1.02 for III. Kerületi TUE, a combined 2.04 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Vasas II win35%

Draw30%

III. Kerületi TUE win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

1–113.5%
1–013.3%
0–113.2%
0–012.9%
2–16.9%

Recent form

Vasas II

2026-08-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gyulai Termál · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Honvéd II · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-16T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Újpest II · 3-5 (L)
2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Szolnoki MAV FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Szegedi VSE · 1-1 (D)

III. Kerületi TUE

2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Újpest II · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Szolnoki MAV FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Honvéd II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Szegedi VSE · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dabas · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

NB III - Southeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gyulai Termál	12	12	0	0	33	36
2	ESMTK	12	8	3	1	21	27
3	III. Kerületi TUE	12	8	2	2	11	26
4	Szeged-Csanád II	12	5	5	2	7	20
5	Újpest II	12	5	4	3	10	19
6	Vasas II	12	5	3	4	11	18
7	Csepel	12	4	5	3	6	17
8	Bekescsaba 1912	12	3	5	4	1	14
9	Monori Se	12	3	5	4	-1	14
10	Szolnoki MAV FC	12	3	5	4	-2	14
11	Dabas	12	4	2	6	-12	14
12	Honvéd II	12	3	2	7	-2	11
13	Sándorfalva	12	3	1	8	-22	10
14	Hódmezővásárhely	12	1	5	6	-12	8
15	BKV Előre	12	2	2	8	-28	8
16	Szegedi VSE	12	1	3	8	-21	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.