· Analysis updated 12:44 UTC
Vasas vs Kecskeméti TE Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.33 expected goals for Vasas and 1.88 for Kecskeméti TE, a combined total of 4.20. That distribution gives Vasas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vasas win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
2.33 – 1.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vasas home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kecskeméti TE away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.6%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–16.5%
- 1–26.1%
- 3–15.9%
Recent form
Vasas
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Debreceni VSC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs TFSE Budapest · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Nyiregyhaza · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Ujpest · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Puskas Academy · 0-1 (L)
Kecskeméti TE
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Szeged 2011 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tatabánya · 5-4 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kazincbarcikai · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kozarmisleny FC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Gyirmot SE · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-11T12:00:00.000Z · Vasas 5-1 Kecskeméti TE (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-02-08T14:00:00.000Z · Vasas 2-0 Kecskeméti TE (NB II)
- 2025-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · Vasas 2-1 Kecskeméti TE (NB II)
- 2023-03-12T13:05:00.000Z · Vasas 0-2 Kecskeméti TE (NB I)
- 2022-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · Vasas 1-2 Kecskeméti TE (NB I)
- 2022-07-30T15:45:00.000Z · Vasas 0-0 Kecskeméti TE (NB I)
- 2022-02-28T19:00:00.000Z · Vasas 1-0 Kecskeméti TE (NB II)
- 2021-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · Vasas 1-1 Kecskeméti TE (NB II)
- 2012-04-07T15:30:00.000Z · Vasas 2-4 Kecskeméti TE (NB I)
- 2011-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · Vasas 1-1 Kecskeméti TE (NB I)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vasas win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.