· Analysis updated 16:44 UTC
Vasas vs Soroksar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Vasas and 1.87 for Soroksar, a combined total of 3.59. That distribution gives Soroksar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.0% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vasas home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Soroksar away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Soroksar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 36% / 22% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Vasas and 1.87 for Soroksar, a combined 3.59 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.9%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–17.6%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–35.2%
Recent form
Vasas
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Debreceni VSC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs TFSE Budapest · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Nyiregyhaza · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Ujpest · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Puskas Academy · 0-1 (L)
Soroksar
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tiszakecske FC · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hévíz · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajka · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Csakvar · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Szentlőrinc SE · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.