· Analysis updated 10:16 UTC
Vasco da Gama U20 vs Botafogo U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Vasco da Gama U20 and 0.85 for Botafogo U20, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Vasco da Gama U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vasco da Gama U20 win
58.7% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vasco da Gama U20 home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vasco da Gama U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 23% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Vasco da Gama U20 and 0.85 for Botafogo U20, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.0%
- 2–011.4%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.4%
Recent form
Vasco da Gama U20
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sampaio Correa FE U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo U20 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-08T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Madureira U20 · 1-0 (W)
Botafogo U20
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Estrela De Marco U20 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sampaio Correa FE U20 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Volta Redonda U20 · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-29T21:00:00.000Z · Vasco da Gama U20 1-0 Botafogo U20 (Brasileiro U20 A)
- 2025-11-22T13:00:00.000Z · Vasco da Gama U20 0-0 Botafogo U20 (Carioca U20)
- 2025-11-15T13:00:00.000Z · Vasco da Gama U20 1-1 Botafogo U20 (Carioca U20)
- 2025-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · Vasco da Gama U20 1-2 Botafogo U20 (Carioca U20)
- 2025-06-01T13:00:00.000Z · Vasco da Gama U20 1-4 Botafogo U20 (Copa Rio U20)
- 2025-05-25T13:00:00.000Z · Vasco da Gama U20 0-0 Botafogo U20 (Copa Rio U20)
- 2025-05-03T18:00:00.000Z · Vasco da Gama U20 1-1 Botafogo U20 (Copa Rio U20)
- 2025-04-30T18:00:00.000Z · Vasco da Gama U20 1-1 Botafogo U20 (Brasileiro U20 A)
- 2024-07-21T13:00:00.000Z · Vasco da Gama U20 1-1 Botafogo U20 (Carioca U20)
- 2024-04-14T13:00:00.000Z · Vasco da Gama U20 2-1 Botafogo U20 (Copa Rio U20)
Carioca U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fluminense U20 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 29 |
| 2 | Vasco da Gama U20 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 28 |
| 3 | Flamengo U20 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 27 |
| 4 | Botafogo U20 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Bangu U20 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Sampaio Correa FE U20 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 15 |
| 7 | Madureira U20 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Nova Iguaçu U20 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 9 | Boavista U20 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 9 |
| 10 | Maricá U20 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 11 | Volta Redonda U20 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 8 |
| 12 | Portuguesa RJ U20 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vasco da Gama U20 win, at 58.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.