Vasco da Gama U20 vs Flamengo U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Vasco da Gama U20 and 1.43 for Flamengo U20, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Vasco da Gama U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vasco da Gama U20 home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vasco da Gama U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Vasco da Gama U20 and 1.43 for Flamengo U20, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Vasco da Gama U20 win39%

Draw25%

Flamengo U20 win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.5%
2–18.6%
1–28.2%
1–08.0%
0–17.6%

Recent form

Vasco da Gama U20

2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sampaio Correa FE U20 · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo U20 · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-08T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo U20 · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense U20 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Madureira U20 · 1-0 (W)

Flamengo U20

2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Maricá U20 · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Criciuma U20 · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vasco da Gama U20 · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-08T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasco da Gama U20 · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sampaio Correa FE U20 · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Carioca U20 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Fluminense U20	11	9	2	0	22	29
2	Vasco da Gama U20	11	9	1	1	18	28
3	Flamengo U20	11	9	0	2	16	27
4	Botafogo U20	11	5	2	4	3	17
5	Bangu U20	11	4	3	4	1	15
6	Sampaio Correa FE U20	11	4	3	4	-8	15
7	Madureira U20	11	1	8	2	-3	11
8	Nova Iguaçu U20	11	2	4	5	-7	10
9	Boavista U20	11	2	3	6	-9	9
10	Maricá U20	11	2	2	7	-10	8
11	Volta Redonda U20	11	2	2	7	-11	8
12	Portuguesa RJ U20	11	1	2	8	-12	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.