Vasco da Gama U20 vs Palmeiras U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Vasco da Gama U20 and 1.60 for Palmeiras U20, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Palmeiras U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.42 – 1.60

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vasco da Gama U20 home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Palmeiras U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 34% / 24% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Vasco da Gama U20 and 1.60 for Palmeiras U20, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Vasco da Gama U20 win34%

Draw24%

Palmeiras U20 win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–111.1%
1–28.9%
2–17.9%
0–17.8%
1–06.9%

Recent form

Vasco da Gama U20

2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sampaio Correa FE U20 · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo U20 · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-08T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo U20 · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense U20 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Madureira U20 · 1-0 (W)

Palmeiras U20

2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo SP U20 · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo U20 · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo SP U20 · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-09T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos U20 · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ituano U20 · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Brasileiro U20 A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras U20	19	13	5	1	31	44
2	Vasco da Gama U20	19	11	3	5	17	36
3	Botafogo U20	19	11	3	5	12	36
4	RB Bragantino U20	19	10	4	5	14	34
5	Athletico PR U20	19	9	5	5	14	32
6	Santos U20	19	9	4	6	5	31
7	Cruzeiro U20	19	8	5	6	8	29
8	Corinthians U20	19	8	5	6	6	29
9	Bahia U20	19	8	5	6	2	29
10	Flamengo U20	19	7	7	5	-1	28
11	São Paulo U20	19	6	7	6	1	25
12	América Mineiro U20	19	6	7	6	-12	25
13	Cuiabá U20	19	6	3	10	-8	21
14	Vitória U20	19	5	5	9	-11	20
15	Fluminense U20	19	5	4	10	-6	19
16	Grêmio U20	19	6	1	12	-11	19
17	Juventude U20	19	5	3	11	-19	18
18	Criciuma U20	19	5	2	12	-16	17
19	Avaí U20	19	3	7	9	-19	16
20	Fortaleza U20	19	2	9	8	-7	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.