Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.13 for Boca Juniors, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Boca Juniors the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.10 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vasco DA Gama home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Boca Juniors away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Boca Juniors to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 35% / 29% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.13 for Boca Juniors, a combined 2.22 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Vasco DA Gama win35%

Draw29%

Boca Juniors win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–113.4%
0–112.2%
1–011.9%
0–010.8%
1–27.5%

Recent form

Vasco DA Gama

2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Coritiba · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-15T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Fe · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 2-1 (W)

Boca Juniors

2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Santa Fe · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-20T17:45:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-16T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

CONMEBOL Sudamericana table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Macara	6	2	4	0	3	10
2	Tigre	6	2	3	1	3	9
3	America de Cali	6	2	3	1	1	9
4	Alianza Atletico	6	0	2	4	-7	2
1	Atletico-MG	6	3	1	2	2	10
2	Cienciano	6	2	2	2	-2	8
3	Juventud	6	1	4	1	3	7
4	Puerto Cabello	6	2	1	3	-3	7
1	Sao Paulo	6	3	3	0	5	12
2	O'Higgins	6	3	1	2	2	10
3	Millonarios	6	2	2	2	0	8
4	Boston River	6	1	0	5	-7	3
1	Deportivo Recoleta	6	1	5	0	1	8
2	Santos	6	1	4	1	2	7
3	San Lorenzo	6	1	4	1	1	7
4	Deportivo Cuenca	6	1	3	2	-4	6
1	Botafogo	6	5	1	0	10	16
2	Caracas FC	6	2	3	1	0	9
3	Racing Club	6	2	2	2	2	8
4	Independiente	6	0	0	6	-12	0
1	Atletico Torque	6	4	1	1	6	13
2	Gremio	6	3	2	1	5	11
3	Deportivo Riestra	6	1	2	3	-6	5
4	Palestino	6	0	3	3	-5	3
1	Olimpia	6	4	1	1	4	13
2	Vasco DA Gama	6	3	1	2	4	10
3	A. Italiano	6	2	1	3	-2	7
4	Barracas Central	6	0	3	3	-6	3
1	River Plate	6	4	2	0	6	14
2	RB Bragantino	6	3	1	2	7	10
3	Carabobo FC	6	3	0	3	1	9
4	Blooming	6	0	1	5	-14	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.