· Analysis updated 20:17 UTC
Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.43 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Palmeiras the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.9% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vasco DA Gama home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Palmeiras away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Palmeiras to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 31% / 26% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.43 for Palmeiras, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.7%
- 0–27.5%
Recent form
Vasco DA Gama
- 2026-10-24T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-21T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-14T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Boca Juniors · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 0-0 (D)
Palmeiras
- 2026-10-24T21:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-22T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Paranaense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.