Hitachi Energy Arena · Referee Mohammed Al-Hakim, Sweden · Analysis updated 10:44 UTC
Vasteras SK FK vs Djurgardens IF Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.92 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Djurgardens IF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Djurgardens IF win
54.3% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vasteras SK FK home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Djurgardens IF away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–18.5%
- 0–28.1%
- 1–36.3%
Recent form
Vasteras SK FK
- 2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Halmstad · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mjallby AIF · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Goteborg · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Hammarby FF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Malmo FF · 2-0 (W)
Djurgardens IF
- 2026-10-24T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Orgryte IS · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Brommapojkarna · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hammarby FF · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs VfL Osnabrück · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs IF Elfsborg · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-10T17:00:00.000Z · Vasteras SK FK 1-0 Djurgardens IF (Allsvenskan)
- 2026-08-03T17:00:00.000Z · Vasteras SK FK 0-6 Djurgardens IF (Allsvenskan)
- 2026-02-07T12:00:00.000Z · Vasteras SK FK 0-1 Djurgardens IF (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-01-25T13:00:00.000Z · Vasteras SK FK 3-3 Djurgardens IF (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-10-28T18:00:00.000Z · Vasteras SK FK 1-2 Djurgardens IF (Allsvenskan)
- 2024-05-05T12:00:00.000Z · Vasteras SK FK 0-2 Djurgardens IF (Allsvenskan)
- 2024-01-27T13:00:00.000Z · Vasteras SK FK 0-0 Djurgardens IF (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-01-22T00:00:00.000Z · Vasteras SK FK 0-3 Djurgardens IF (Friendlies Clubs)
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 55 |
| 2 | Hammarby FF | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 31 | 49 |
| 3 | Djurgardens IF | 25 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 48 |
| 4 | BK Hacken | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 17 | 45 |
| 5 | IF Elfsborg | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 42 |
| 6 | Vasteras SK FK | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | -2 | 38 |
| 7 | Malmo FF | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | AIK Stockholm | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 37 |
| 9 | IFK Goteborg | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | -9 | 37 |
| 10 | IF Brommapojkarna | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 33 |
| 11 | Gais | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 31 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -14 | 23 |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | -18 | 22 |
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -20 | 20 |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 25 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -25 | 19 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | -28 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Djurgardens IF win, at 54.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.