Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 0.96 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Vasteras SK FK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Vasteras SK FK win

56.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 0.96

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vasteras SK FK home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kalmar FF away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vasteras SK FK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 23% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Vasteras SK FK and 0.96 for Kalmar FF, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Vasteras SK FK win57%

Draw23%

Kalmar FF win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–011.5%
1–111.0%
2–010.2%
2–19.8%
0–06.5%

Recent form

Vasteras SK FK

2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Halmstad · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mjallby AIF · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Goteborg · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Hammarby FF · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Malmo FF · 2-0 (W)

Kalmar FF

2026-10-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Norrkoping · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BK Hacken · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Elfsborg · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Djurgardens IF · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Halmstad · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Allsvenskan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sirius	25	17	4	4	24	55
2	Djurgardens IF	25	15	3	7	29	48
3	Hammarby FF	24	14	4	6	29	46
4	BK Hacken	25	12	9	4	17	45
5	IF Elfsborg	25	11	9	5	13	42
6	Vasteras SK FK	25	11	5	9	-2	38
7	Malmo FF	25	11	4	10	4	37
8	AIK Stockholm	25	10	7	8	-3	37
9	IFK Goteborg	24	10	6	8	-9	36
10	IF Brommapojkarna	25	9	6	10	-4	33
11	Gais	24	8	6	10	5	30
12	Mjallby AIF	24	5	8	11	-12	23
13	Kalmar FF	25	6	4	15	-18	22
14	Degerfors IF	25	5	5	15	-20	20
15	Orgryte IS	25	4	7	14	-25	19
16	Halmstad	25	4	5	16	-28	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Vasteras SK FK win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.