Västra Frölunda vs Onsala Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Västra Frölunda and 1.43 for Onsala, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Västra Frölunda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Västra Frölunda win

45.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Västra Frölunda home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Onsala away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Västra Frölunda win45%

Draw23%

Onsala win32%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.4%
2–19.1%
1–27.4%
1–07.3%
2–26.5%

Recent form

Västra Frölunda

2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Åstorp · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Galtabacks · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dalstorps · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Onsala · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lindome · 1-2 (L)

Onsala

2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hestrafor · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Qviding FIF · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Astrio · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Galtabacks · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Västra Frölunda · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-06-11T17:00:00.000Z · Västra Frölunda 4-2 Onsala (Svenska Cupen)
2026-04-03T11:00:00.000Z · Västra Frölunda 0-0 Onsala (Division 2 - Västra Götaland)
2025-08-09T11:00:00.000Z · Västra Frölunda 2-1 Onsala (Division 2 - Västra Götaland)
2025-03-30T11:00:00.000Z · Västra Frölunda 0-2 Onsala (Division 2 - Västra Götaland)
2023-08-26T11:00:00.000Z · Västra Frölunda 1-2 Onsala (Division 2 - Västra Götaland)
2023-04-29T11:00:00.000Z · Västra Frölunda 0-5 Onsala (Division 2 - Västra Götaland)
2022-08-06T12:00:00.000Z · Västra Frölunda 1-0 Onsala (Division 2 - Västra Götaland)
2022-04-15T11:00:00.000Z · Västra Frölunda 2-3 Onsala (Division 2 - Västra Götaland)
2021-10-23T12:00:00.000Z · Västra Frölunda 1-4 Onsala (Division 2 - Västra Götaland)
2021-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · Västra Frölunda 1-2 Onsala (Division 2 - Västra Götaland)

Division 2 - Västra Götaland table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Landvetter IS	26	19	3	4	25	60
2	Dalstorps	26	15	7	4	26	52
3	Jonsered	26	12	6	8	1	42
4	Hestrafor	26	12	5	9	6	41
5	Västra Frölunda	26	11	7	8	6	40
6	Qviding FIF	26	12	4	10	3	40
7	Böljan	26	10	7	9	4	37
8	Lindome	26	11	4	11	2	37
9	Torslanda	26	9	7	10	-1	34
10	Onsala	26	9	6	11	-4	33
11	Kongahälla	26	8	6	12	-9	30
12	Åstorp	26	8	5	13	-9	29
13	Galtabacks	26	6	5	15	-10	23
14	Astrio	26	2	4	20	-40	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Västra Frölunda win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.