· Analysis updated 13:17 UTC
Vauxhall Motors vs Dunston UTS Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Vauxhall Motors and 1.53 for Dunston UTS, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives Dunston UTS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dunston UTS win
46.8% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vauxhall Motors home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dunston UTS away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dunston UTS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 28% / 26% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Vauxhall Motors and 1.53 for Dunston UTS, a combined 2.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–28.3%
- 1–08.0%
Recent form
Vauxhall Motors
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunston UTS · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Prescot Cables · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chester · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stafford Rangers · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mossley · 2-3 (L)
Dunston UTS
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Avro · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Scarborough Athletic · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Morpeth Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vauxhall Motors · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grimsby Borough · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dunston UTS win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.