Spiris Arena · Referee U. Lov · Analysis updated 14:48 UTC
Växjö W vs Malmö FF W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.76 expected goals for Växjö W and 2.22 for Malmö FF W, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Malmö FF W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Malmö FF W win
70.5% probability
Expected goals
0.76 – 2.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Växjö W home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Malmö FF W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Malmö FF W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 11% / 18% / 71% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.76 goals for Växjö W and 2.22 for Malmö FF W, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
30%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.5%
- 0–111.3%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–39.2%
- 1–18.6%
Recent form
Växjö W
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs AIK W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Husqvarna W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Vittsjö W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hammarby W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Piteå W · 0-2 (L)
Malmö FF W
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosengård W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Pölten W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Brommapojkarna W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-23T16:45:00.000Z · A vs St. Pölten W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Djurgården W · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Damallsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Häcken W | 22 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 60 | 61 |
| 2 | Hammarby W | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 38 | 53 |
| 3 | Malmö FF W | 22 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 27 | 42 |
| 4 | Kristianstad W | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 35 |
| 5 | AIK W | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 34 |
| 6 | Vittsjö W | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 32 |
| 7 | Brommapojkarna W | 22 | 10 | 2 | 10 | -7 | 32 |
| 8 | Djurgården W | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -6 | 27 |
| 9 | Eskilstuna United W | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -10 | 27 |
| 10 | Piteå W | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | -7 | 24 |
| 11 | Rosengård W | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -3 | 23 |
| 12 | Norrköping W | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -17 | 20 |
| 13 | Växjö W | 22 | 5 | 3 | 14 | -20 | 18 |
| 14 | Uppsala W | 22 | 1 | 3 | 18 | -64 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Malmö FF W win, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.