Estadio El Condor · Analysis updated 16:39 UTC
Vega Real vs Atlántico Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Vega Real and 0.88 for Atlántico, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Vega Real the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vega Real win
63.6% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vega Real home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atlántico away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.3%
- 2–011.3%
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–07.5%
Recent form
Vega Real
- 2026-10-24T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlántico · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cibao · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Salcedo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad O&M · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Moca · 1-0 (W)
Atlántico
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Salcedo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Cibao · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Jarabacoa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Delfines Del Este · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad O&M · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T22:00:00.000Z · Vega Real 5-0 Atlántico (Liga Mayor)
- 2025-11-23T22:00:00.000Z · Vega Real 0-1 Atlántico (Liga Mayor)
- 2025-08-30T20:00:00.000Z · Vega Real 1-0 Atlántico (Liga Mayor)
- 2025-03-16T20:00:00.000Z · Vega Real 0-1 Atlántico (Copa LDF)
- 2024-07-06T20:00:00.000Z · Vega Real 0-0 Atlántico (Liga Mayor)
- 2024-05-26T20:00:00.000Z · Vega Real 0-1 Atlántico (Liga Mayor)
- 2024-04-21T14:00:00.000Z · Vega Real 2-1 Atlántico (Liga Mayor)
- 2023-09-23T22:00:00.000Z · Vega Real 0-1 Atlántico (Liga Mayor)
- 2023-08-12T23:00:00.000Z · Vega Real 1-0 Atlántico (Liga Mayor)
- 2023-05-14T20:00:00.000Z · Vega Real 0-3 Atlántico (Liga Mayor)
Liga Mayor table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salcedo | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 29 |
| 2 | Cibao | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Vega Real | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 17 |
| 4 | Delfines Del Este | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Moca | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Universidad O&M | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Jarabacoa | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 5 |
| 8 | Atlántico | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -27 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vega Real win, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.