Estadio El Condor · Analysis updated 16:39 UTC
Vega Real vs Jarabacoa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for Vega Real and 0.63 for Jarabacoa, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Vega Real the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vega Real win
76.0% probability
Expected goals
2.35 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vega Real home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jarabacoa away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vega Real to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 16% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.35 goals for Vega Real and 0.63 for Jarabacoa, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
24%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.1%
- 1–012.0%
- 3–011.0%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–17.5%
Recent form
Vega Real
- 2026-10-24T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlántico · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cibao · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Salcedo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad O&M · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Moca · 1-0 (W)
Jarabacoa
- 2026-10-23T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Universidad O&M · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-17T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Moca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfines Del Este · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlántico · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Cibao · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Mayor table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salcedo | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 29 |
| 2 | Cibao | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Vega Real | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 17 |
| 4 | Delfines Del Este | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Moca | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Universidad O&M | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Jarabacoa | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 5 |
| 8 | Atlántico | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -27 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vega Real win, at 76.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.