Estadio Olímpico La Vega · Analysis updated 12:47 UTC
Vega Real vs Salcedo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.81 expected goals for Vega Real and 1.28 for Salcedo, a combined total of 2.09. That distribution gives Salcedo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Salcedo win
47.7% probability
Expected goals
0.81 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vega Real home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Salcedo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.9%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–012.3%
- 0–210.2%
- 1–010.0%
Recent form
Vega Real
- 2026-10-24T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlántico · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cibao · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Salcedo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad O&M · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Moca · 1-0 (W)
Salcedo
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlántico · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Vega Real · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Moca · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfines Del Este · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad O&M · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · Vega Real 0-1 Salcedo (Liga Mayor)
- 2026-08-30T20:00:00.000Z · Vega Real 1-3 Salcedo (Liga Mayor)
- 2025-12-18T21:00:00.000Z · Vega Real 4-3 Salcedo (Liga Mayor)
- 2025-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · Vega Real 0-1 Salcedo (Liga Mayor)
- 2025-04-26T22:00:00.000Z · Vega Real 0-1 Salcedo (Copa LDF)
Liga Mayor table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salcedo | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 32 |
| 2 | Cibao | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 24 |
| 3 | Vega Real | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 17 |
| 4 | Delfines Del Este | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Moca | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 6 | Universidad O&M | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Jarabacoa | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 5 |
| 8 | Atlántico | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -27 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Salcedo win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.