Estadio El Condor · Analysis updated 21:45 UTC
Vega Real vs Universidad O&M Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Vega Real and 1.02 for Universidad O&M, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Vega Real the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vega Real win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.41 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vega Real home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Universidad O&M away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vega Real to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 27% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.41 goals for Vega Real and 1.02 for Universidad O&M, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–08.8%
Recent form
Vega Real
- 2026-10-24T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlántico · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cibao · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Salcedo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad O&M · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Moca · 1-0 (W)
Universidad O&M
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Salcedo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlántico · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Cibao · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Jarabacoa · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Delfines Del Este · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Mayor table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salcedo | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 29 |
| 2 | Cibao | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Vega Real | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 17 |
| 4 | Delfines Del Este | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Moca | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Universidad O&M | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Jarabacoa | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 5 |
| 8 | Atlántico | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -27 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vega Real win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.