Yurtec Stadium Sendai · Analysis updated 15:11 UTC
Vegalta Sendai vs Omiya Ardija Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Vegalta Sendai and 1.17 for Omiya Ardija, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Vegalta Sendai the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Vegalta Sendai win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vegalta Sendai home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Omiya Ardija away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.9%
- 2–07.8%
Recent form
Vegalta Sendai
- 2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Albirex Niigata · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Imabari · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Tokushima Vortis · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T04:05:00.000Z · A vs Montedio Yamagata · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Jubilo Iwata · 2-1 (W)
Omiya Ardija
- 2026-10-24T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Yokohama FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kataller Toyama · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagan Tosu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanraure Hachinohe · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Urawa · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-10-04T06:00:00.000Z · Vegalta Sendai 1-2 Omiya Ardija (J2 League)
- 2025-05-10T05:00:00.000Z · Vegalta Sendai 0-3 Omiya Ardija (J2 League)
- 2023-08-19T10:00:00.000Z · Vegalta Sendai 1-0 Omiya Ardija (J2 League)
- 2023-05-21T05:00:00.000Z · Vegalta Sendai 1-1 Omiya Ardija (J2 League)
- 2022-08-13T10:00:00.000Z · Vegalta Sendai 2-3 Omiya Ardija (J2 League)
- 2022-05-21T05:00:00.000Z · Vegalta Sendai 4-2 Omiya Ardija (J2 League)
- 2018-07-11T10:00:00.000Z · Vegalta Sendai 1-0 Omiya Ardija (Emperor Cup)
- 2017-11-18T05:00:00.000Z · Vegalta Sendai 3-0 Omiya Ardija (J1 League)
- 2017-05-14T08:00:00.000Z · Vegalta Sendai 1-2 Omiya Ardija (J1 League)
- 2017-05-03T06:00:00.000Z · Vegalta Sendai 2-1 Omiya Ardija (J-League Cup)
J2 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 27 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 26 |
| 3 | Kataller Toyama | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 4 | Yokohama FC | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Shonan Bellmare | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 6 | Omiya Ardija | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 7 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Oita Trinita | 13 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 9 | Iwaki | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 17 |
| 10 | Sagan Tosu | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 | Tokushima Vortis | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 12 | Consadole Sapporo | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Blaublitz Akita | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 14 | Jubilo Iwata | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 15 | Fujieda MYFC | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 16 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 14 |
| 17 | Montedio Yamagata | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -2 | 13 |
| 18 | Tochigi City | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 12 |
| 19 | Imabari | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -11 | 11 |
| 20 | Ventforet Kofu | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -17 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vegalta Sendai win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.