Velarde vs Cayón Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.58 expected goals for Velarde and 1.58 for Cayón, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Cayón the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Cayón win

61.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.58 – 1.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Velarde home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cayón away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cayón to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 13% / 25% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.58 goals for Velarde and 1.58 for Cayón, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Velarde win13%

Draw25%

Cayón win62%

Double chance 1X

38%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

87%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score35%

Correct score

0–118.3%
0–214.4%
0–011.6%
1–110.5%
1–28.3%

Recent form

Velarde

2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Guarnizo · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vimenor · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Barquereño · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Naval Reinosa · 0-0 (D)
2024-05-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vimenor · 0-3 (L)

Cayón

2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Mineros · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guarnizo · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Vimenor · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vimenor · 3-1 (W)
2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tropezón · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tropezón	6	6	0	0	10	18
2	Bezana	6	5	1	0	8	16
3	Laredo	6	5	0	1	12	15
4	Sámano	6	3	2	1	8	11
5	Revilla	6	3	2	1	5	11
6	Cayón	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Torina	6	2	4	0	6	10
8	Vimenor	6	3	1	2	2	10
9	Selaya	6	2	1	3	-3	7
10	Atlético Mineros	6	2	0	4	-8	6
11	Guarnizo	6	1	2	3	-3	5
12	Solares	6	1	2	3	-3	5
13	Castro	6	1	2	3	-4	5
14	Escobedo	6	1	2	3	-5	5
15	Atlético Albericia	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Velarde	6	1	1	4	-7	4
17	Barquereño	6	1	1	4	-8	4
18	Naval Reinosa	6	0	2	4	-9	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cayón win, at 61.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.